The Committee does not forecast

Cepr business cycle dating committee definition

Note that since October the Committee has dropped its requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area. Results are unaffected by this choice. The definition used here is a simplified version of the Bry and Boshan dating algorithm.

The algorithm did not date an early millennium recession in Europe. The data are going to be subsequently revised especially those for the most recent observation and the revisions can be such that the peak will disappear in subsequent vintages. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity.

Previously, it did so only after meetings that did date a turnaround. The Committee wants to make sure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area. Remark Journalistic rule that dates a peak if there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth is more stringent than the rule derived above. The Committee meets when it feels that data developments warrant examining whether there has been a turnaround in economic activity.

The Committee does not have

The President and the Research Director are ex officio members of the Committee. The Committee wants to ensure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area. The Committee does not forecast. Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate Euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently. See, for instance, the October or June findings of the Committee.

The Committee's use of these indicators in conjunction with the broad measures recognizes the issue of double-counting of sectors included in both those indicators and the broad measures. The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. The rationale for this change is that the Committee feels that the decision not to date is as informative as a decision to date. Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.

The Committee's use of these indicators

The following period is an expansion. It is thus possible that the euro area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries. In addition, with real time data also the decline disappeared see Giannone et al. Probability that we will detect a peak in a given quarter with the vintage of Keyphrases. No, the sole objective of the Committee is to date recessions for the euro area as a whole.